🥺

1111

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2009	0.5
2010	9.36
2011	52
2012	191
2013	350
2014	571
2015	912
2016	1207
2017	1682
2018	2135
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close;
[years sales] = textread("11.txt", "%d%f");
plot(years, sales, '*g');
hold on;
pred = polyfit(years, sales, 2)
pred_years = [2019:2030]; 
pred_sales = polyval(pred, pred_years)
plot(pred_years, pred_sales, 'ob');
draw_years = [2009:0.1:2030];
draw_sales = polyval(pred, draw_years);
plot(draw_years, draw_sales, '-r');
axis('tight');
xlabel('Year');
ylabel('Sale (10^{8} CNY)');
print("1111.svg");

双十一营业额预测

图里绿色的是2009到2018年的数据，刚过完的2019年的数据是2684亿元，预测值是2675.5，偏差只有3%，从科学讲，预测非常接近。说明什么呢？

这不是我发现的，详情见报道：

https://new.qq.com/omn/20191112/20191112A0ANYJ00.html

李永乐老师也做了关于双十一数据是否造假视频：

本福特定律：

$ P_n = \lg \frac{n + 1}{n} $

验证一下：

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pn = @(n) (log10 ((n + 1)./n))
nrange = [1:9];
prange = pn(nrange) * 100;
plot(nrange, prange, 'r-')
xlabel('Number');
ylabel('Probability (%)');

statrange = nrange;
statcount = [3 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 2];
statprob = statcount ./ sum(statcount) * 100;
[xb, yb] = bar(statrange, statprob);
patch(xb, yb, [1:numel(nrange)], 'edgecolor', 'none', 'facealpha', 0.95);
colormap(ggplot2(64));
print("1111-Benford.svg");

用本福特定律验证双十一数据

数据量有点少，可能还不是很准。不管怎样，我还是买了些好东东。

PM963 960 G

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sudo fdisk /dev/nvme1n1
sudo mkfs.ext4 /dev/nvme1n1p1
sudo mkdir -p /ssd2
sudo mount /dev/nvme1n1p1 /ssd2
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$ sudo hdparm -Tt /dev/nvme0n1p1

/dev/nvme0n1p1:
 Timing cached reads:   20346 MB in  1.99 seconds = 10200.73 MB/sec
 HDIO_DRIVE_CMD(identify) failed: Inappropriate ioctl for device
 Timing buffered disk reads: 9806 MB in  3.00 seconds = 3268.43 MB/sec

sudo hdparm -Tt /dev/nvme1n1p1

/dev/nvme1n1p1:
 Timing cached reads:   19188 MB in  1.99 seconds = 9618.18 MB/sec
 HDIO_DRIVE_CMD(identify) failed: Inappropriate ioctl for device
 Timing buffered disk reads: 7738 MB in  3.00 seconds = 2579.06 MB/sec

读能到3000 MB/sec以上，不错，不错。后面那块更旧，而且插在了PCI-E 4X上，是不是因此速度慢，不清楚。

要什么自行车。

内存

又买了4条16 G内存。

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$ sudo dmidecode -t memory
# dmidecode 3.2
Getting SMBIOS data from sysfs.
SMBIOS 3.0.0 present.

Handle 0x002A, DMI type 16, 23 bytes
Physical Memory Array
	Location: System Board Or Motherboard
	Use: System Memory
	Error Correction Type: Multi-bit ECC
	Maximum Capacity: 128 GB
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Number Of Devices: 2

Handle 0x002B, DMI type 17, 40 bytes
Memory Device
	Array Handle: 0x002A
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Total Width: 72 bits
	Data Width: 64 bits
	Size: 16384 MB
	Form Factor: DIMM
	Set: None
	Locator: P1-DIMMA1
	Bank Locator: P0_Node0_Channel0_Dimm0
	Type: DDR4
	Type Detail: Synchronous
	Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Manufacturer: Samsung
	Serial Number: 1486891D
	Asset Tag: P1-DIMMA1_AssetTag (date:15/50)
	Part Number: M393A2G40DB0-CPB   
	Rank: 2
	Configured Memory Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Minimum Voltage: Unknown
	Maximum Voltage: Unknown
	Configured Voltage: Unknown

Handle 0x002C, DMI type 17, 40 bytes
Memory Device
	Array Handle: 0x002A
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Total Width: 72 bits
	Data Width: 64 bits
	Size: 16384 MB
	Form Factor: DIMM
	Set: None
	Locator: P1-DIMMB1
	Bank Locator: P0_Node0_Channel1_Dimm0
	Type: DDR4
	Type Detail: Synchronous
	Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Manufacturer: Samsung
	Serial Number: 40A245E1
	Asset Tag: P1-DIMMB1_AssetTag (date:15/25)
	Part Number: M393A2G40DB0-CPB   
	Rank: 2
	Configured Memory Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Minimum Voltage: Unknown
	Maximum Voltage: Unknown
	Configured Voltage: Unknown

Handle 0x002D, DMI type 16, 23 bytes
Physical Memory Array
	Location: System Board Or Motherboard
	Use: System Memory
	Error Correction Type: Multi-bit ECC
	Maximum Capacity: 128 GB
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Number Of Devices: 2

Handle 0x002E, DMI type 17, 40 bytes
Memory Device
	Array Handle: 0x002D
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Total Width: 72 bits
	Data Width: 64 bits
	Size: 16384 MB
	Form Factor: DIMM
	Set: None
	Locator: P1-DIMMC1
	Bank Locator: P0_Node0_Channel2_Dimm0
	Type: DDR4
	Type Detail: Synchronous
	Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Manufacturer: Samsung
	Serial Number: 310629E4
	Asset Tag: P1-DIMMC1_AssetTag (date:15/51)
	Part Number: M393A2G40DB0-CPB   
	Rank: 2
	Configured Memory Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Minimum Voltage: Unknown
	Maximum Voltage: Unknown
	Configured Voltage: Unknown

Handle 0x002F, DMI type 17, 40 bytes
Memory Device
	Array Handle: 0x002D
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Total Width: 72 bits
	Data Width: 64 bits
	Size: 16384 MB
	Form Factor: DIMM
	Set: None
	Locator: P1-DIMMD1
	Bank Locator: P0_Node0_Channel3_Dimm0
	Type: DDR4
	Type Detail: Synchronous
	Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Manufacturer: Samsung
	Serial Number: 40A993D6
	Asset Tag: P1-DIMMD1_AssetTag (date:15/26)
	Part Number: M393A2G40DB0-CPB   
	Rank: 2
	Configured Memory Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Minimum Voltage: Unknown
	Maximum Voltage: Unknown
	Configured Voltage: Unknown

Handle 0x0030, DMI type 16, 23 bytes
Physical Memory Array
	Location: System Board Or Motherboard
	Use: System Memory
	Error Correction Type: Multi-bit ECC
	Maximum Capacity: 128 GB
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Number Of Devices: 2

Handle 0x0031, DMI type 17, 40 bytes
Memory Device
	Array Handle: 0x0030
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Total Width: 72 bits
	Data Width: 64 bits
	Size: 16384 MB
	Form Factor: DIMM
	Set: None
	Locator: P2-DIMME1
	Bank Locator: P1_Node1_Channel0_Dimm0
	Type: DDR4
	Type Detail: Synchronous
	Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Manufacturer: Samsung
	Serial Number: 40A86BEE
	Asset Tag: P2-DIMME1_AssetTag (date:15/26)
	Part Number: M393A2G40DB0-CPB   
	Rank: 2
	Configured Memory Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Minimum Voltage: Unknown
	Maximum Voltage: Unknown
	Configured Voltage: Unknown

Handle 0x0032, DMI type 17, 40 bytes
Memory Device
	Array Handle: 0x0030
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Total Width: 72 bits
	Data Width: 64 bits
	Size: 16384 MB
	Form Factor: DIMM
	Set: None
	Locator: P2-DIMMF1
	Bank Locator: P1_Node1_Channel1_Dimm0
	Type: DDR4
	Type Detail: Synchronous
	Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Manufacturer: Samsung
	Serial Number: 3104C8BC
	Asset Tag: P2-DIMMF1_AssetTag (date:15/51)
	Part Number: M393A2G40DB0-CPB   
	Rank: 2
	Configured Memory Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Minimum Voltage: Unknown
	Maximum Voltage: Unknown
	Configured Voltage: Unknown

Handle 0x0033, DMI type 16, 23 bytes
Physical Memory Array
	Location: System Board Or Motherboard
	Use: System Memory
	Error Correction Type: Multi-bit ECC
	Maximum Capacity: 128 GB
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Number Of Devices: 2

Handle 0x0034, DMI type 17, 40 bytes
Memory Device
	Array Handle: 0x0033
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Total Width: 72 bits
	Data Width: 64 bits
	Size: 16384 MB
	Form Factor: DIMM
	Set: None
	Locator: P2-DIMMG1
	Bank Locator: P1_Node1_Channel2_Dimm0
	Type: DDR4
	Type Detail: Synchronous
	Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Manufacturer: Samsung
	Serial Number: 313F120A
	Asset Tag: P2-DIMMG1_AssetTag (date:16/02)
	Part Number: M393A2G40DB0-CPB   
	Rank: 2
	Configured Memory Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Minimum Voltage: Unknown
	Maximum Voltage: Unknown
	Configured Voltage: Unknown

Handle 0x0035, DMI type 17, 40 bytes
Memory Device
	Array Handle: 0x0033
	Error Information Handle: Not Provided
	Total Width: 72 bits
	Data Width: 64 bits
	Size: 16384 MB
	Form Factor: DIMM
	Set: None
	Locator: P2-DIMMH1
	Bank Locator: P1_Node1_Channel3_Dimm0
	Type: DDR4
	Type Detail: Synchronous
	Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Manufacturer: Samsung
	Serial Number: 40A98B32
	Asset Tag: P2-DIMMH1_AssetTag (date:15/26)
	Part Number: M393A2G40DB0-CPB   
	Rank: 2
	Configured Memory Speed: 2133 MT/s
	Minimum Voltage: Unknown
	Maximum Voltage: Unknown
	Configured Voltage: Unknown

36Cores 128G 2T SSD

李永乐老师的视频

关于穷人。

余华的话

我比较喜欢余华。

我是在“文革”期间读完小学和中学的，十年里我没有好好学习。 1983年我开始写小说时，认识的汉字也就是4000个左右，几年以后中国的批评家们纷纷赞扬我的语言简洁，我告诉他们：“那是因为我认识的字不多。”

我想，每个人都有其短处。不要害怕或者掩盖自己的短处，因为从短处出发，往往会走出长处来。这是我的一个人生经验。另外一个经验是：有时候我在构思时觉得将要面对一部很大的作品，结果是越写越小。有时候觉得自己面对的只是一部很小的作品，结果越写越大。人生常常如此，从大处出发，越走越小；从小处出发，越走越大。

所以我在《兄弟》后记里引用了耶稣的话，耶稣说：“你们要走窄门。 ”他告诉我们，“因为引到灭亡，那门是宽的，路是大的，去的人也多。引到永生，那门是窄的，路是小的，找着的人也少。 ”

对应的原文我也查出来了。

Enter ye in at the strait gate: for wide is the gate, and broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in thereat:

Because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it.

Beware of false prophets, which come to you in sheep’s clothing, but inwardly they are ravening wolves.

Ye shall know them by their fruits. Do men gather grapes of thorns, or figs of thistles?

Even so every good tree bringeth forth good fruit; but a corrupt tree bringeth forth evil fruit.

A good tree cannot bring forth evil fruit, neither can a corrupt tree bring forth good fruit.

Every tree that bringeth not forth good fruit is hewn down, and cast into the fire.

Wherefore by their fruits ye shall know them.

Not every one that saith unto me, Lord, Lord, shall enter into the kingdom of heaven; but he that doeth the will of my Father which is in heaven.

Many will say to me in that day, Lord, Lord, have we not prophesied in thy name? and in thy name have cast out devils? and in thy name done many wonderful works?

And then will I profess unto them, I never knew you: depart from me, ye that work iniquity.

你们要进窄门。因为引到灭亡，那门是宽的，路是大的，进去的人也多；

引到永生，那门是窄的，路是小的，找着的人也少。

你们要防备假先知。他们到你们这里来，外面披着羊皮，里面却是残暴的狼。

凭着他们的果子，就可以认出他们来。荆棘上岂能摘葡萄呢？蒺藜里岂能摘无花果呢？

这样，凡好树都结好果子，惟独坏树结坏果子。

好树不能结坏果子；坏树不能结好果子。

凡不结好果子的树就砍下来，丢在火里。

所以，凭着他们的果子就可以认出他们来。

凡称呼我主阿，主阿的人不能都进天国；惟独遵行我天父旨意的人才能进去。

当那日必有许多人对我说：主阿，主阿，我们不是奉你的名传道，奉你的名赶鬼，奉你的名行许多异能麽？

我就明明的告诉他们说：我从来不认识你们，你们这些作恶的人，离开我去罢！

最后这句有意思。

https://www.bible.com/bible/1/MAT.7.KJV

JOB 15:16

https://www.bible.com/bible/1/JOB.15.KJV

罗永浩成为「老赖」

「chris老师」😹

被人称作「chris老师」，提醒我要去美发圈混了😹

https://sheishe.xyz/post/best-workaround-to-use-emacs-in-ms-windows/

难道是外国朋友？回复功能是坏的没法去拜访了。这位博主外文真厉害😼

百度搞幺蛾子

百度发邮件说网站的验证失效了，我看了发现没有失效，可能是折腾的时候偶尔搞没了验证的文件。可是，这时候如果我要重新验证，百度就管我要身份信息。考虑到我的网站在百度根本没有流量，我还是不要验证了。别了，百度。

拜见大佬

https://conf.archlinux.org/posts/arch_conf_report/

鼠标滚轮切换标签页

默认关闭，在地址栏输入about:config回车搜索toolkit.tabbox.switchByScrolling双击为true。

VirtualBox设置超高分辨率

必须用VMSVGA。最终没有实现我的需求，我用NVIDIA的DSR实现了。

https://superuser.com/questions/443445/how-can-i-get-virtualbox-to-run-at-1366x768/443733#443733

https://www.virtualbox.org/manual/ch09.html

小记录 小杂感

大约在2013年左右，火狐吧有一位吧友，有些技术，似乎是上海的一个技术学校的学生(？)。他和群友的矛盾是，他卖二手电脑配件比新的还贵，于是被吧友唾弃，争吵一阵，他就在吧里消失了。我一直想起这个事，因为他的Blog有「念念不忘，必有回响」一类的字眼，和现在的「不忘初心」口号很像。

惭愧，我已经忘了那位吧友的名字了。

GNU git repository is down

as of 2019-11-24T23+08:00.

GNU git repository is down

https://hostux.social/@fsfstatus

用youtube-dl下载视频失败？

可能需要加-i忽略失败。

Android投屏电脑的新选择

https://github.com/barry-ran/QtScrcpy

基于Scrcpy。

字幕

https://sfy.ru/transcript/matrix_ts